What a start to the 2022 sports calendar year! An upstart NFL team few thought would be relevant was within a few plays of winning the Super Bowl. A 15-seed stages one of the most unlikely runs in the history of the NCAA Men's Basketball tournament. As we approach the stretch run of the 2021-22 NHL season, a similar long shot is emerging to remarkably lead his team to the playoffs and position himself for serious MVP consideration. Our Big Apple Hockey contingent is familiar with him. Yup, we're talking about Vancouver Canucks center, J.T. Miller.
In order to fully appreciate Miller, let's first revisit the season for the Vancouver Canucks. On the morning of November 29, the Canucks found themselves in last place in the Pacific Division sitting at -8 (eight games under NHL .500). Their 14 points were the fewest in the conference for all teams not based in Arizona. Since that point, the Canucks have been 14 games over .500 and now sit at a respectable +6 and within reasonable striking distance of a playoff position. The hiring of Bruce Boudreau to replace the fired Travis Green on December 4 was certainly a catalyst. The other catalyst has been the consistent play of Miller.
Entering play Monday, Miller is sitting at 80 (29-51) points. With two more points, he'd be tied for 5th in the NHL. The next closest Canuck is Quinn Hughes with 53. Put another way, Miller has a 50% higher point total than his next closest teammate. The run that Miller is putting together is reminiscent of the Hart Trophy run Taylor Hall executed as a New Jersey Devil in 2017-18. Hall finished the '17-18 season at 39-54-93, good for 6th best in the league. He outpaced his next closest teammate, Nico Hischier, by a whopping 41 points or 80%. Hall put the Devils on his back in a way that hasn't been seen much in recent memory. Miller has started going down a similar path for Vancouver.
The parallels between Hall's MVP season and Miller's current campaign are notable. Hall finished 6th in points, Miller is tied for 8th. Hall carried his team to the playoffs, Miller has an opportunity to do the same. Hall had a non-existent supporting cast, Miller's is only slightly better. The foundation is there for Miller to make a run at winning the Hart, a seemingly impossible possibility for a player that wouldn't have cracked the top 100 of candidates before the season.
So, how does Miller win this award? There are several things that need to happen, all of them within reason.
For starters, the leading candidates for the award need to cannibalize each other. Auston Matthews leads the NHL with 48 goals. However, he isn't pulling away from anybody. His supporting cast of John Tavares and Mitchell Marner remain potent in their own right limiting Matthews' case. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl continue to pace the league in points. They may very well steal each other's votes. Igor Shesterkin has put up Hasek-like numbers. Will he get rested some down the stretch? Can he complete a 2.00 / .940 season? Will voters hold his position against him or refer to the quadrumvirate of Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider and Adam Fox to mitigate his impact? Johnny Gaudreau has been great in Calgary, albeit on a top two defensive team with a strong supporting cast. Unlike Miller, the leading candidates have a supporting cast.
Secondly, he needs to continue his high level play. At the 1.19 points per team game he is averaging, sustaining this pace will produce a 98 point season. Finishing with his first career 100 point season with production of 35-65-100, and cracking the top five in scoring would position him favorably compared to Hall. For a player not renowned for scoring prowess, this attention would be welcomed. While it's possible that a different Canuck shows some offensive chops, there hasn't been much evidence to suggest that's likely.
Of most importance is the Canucks qualifying for the playoffs. While Dallas +11 and Edmonton +11 have the final positions currently held, they are vulnerable. It's not impossible for Vancouver to pass one or possibly both of those clubs. Of benefit to the Canucks is that they won't have to pass both teams, one will suffice. Passing Dallas will position themselves to claim a wildcard while passing Edmonton will claim third in the Pacific. The presence of Vegas +8 is not much of a concern given that the Knights are playing their worst hockey of the season along with the Canucks and Knights facing each other three times within the next two weeks. If Vancouver is to make the playoffs, passing Vegas will occur. An additional benefit Miller will have is that all the playoff attention will be focused on the West as the eight qualifiers for the East have long been decided. Those clamoring for a compelling story will latch onto him. In a way that Hall took over the NHL during his heater in '17-18, Miller has the stage to do the same.
The path for Hall to win the Hart in '17-18 was clear. Emerge as the best player on your team by a huge margin, carry that team on your back and find a way to make the playoffs. J.T. Miller has a similar path right in front of him.
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